Advertising investment will grow this year by 2.0% according to the forecasts of the Zenith Vigía panel, made up of media executives and media groups. The forecast is one tenth lower than what we obtained two months ago, but it improves by two tenths that of January.The year thus shows great stability, with a first semester that is almost ruled out that it will be flat, while further growth is expected in the second part of the year. The panelists answered the questionnaire in the period between the two electoral calls, without yet knowing the results of the European, municipal and regional elections, or the composition of the new Government.The results of the study seem to indicate that greater political and economic stability is expected than that experienced in recent months, which would result in greater economic and advertising activity.If the forecasts for the various variables were fulfilled, advertising investment would have a real growth, higher than the CPI, but it would lose some weight in the participation in GDP, which would grow a few tenths more.
Digital media continues to Albania WhatsApp Number List be the basis for the growth of ad spend. On the other hand, for the Print media and for Generalist Television, falls are expected.Unlike what happened over the last year, the biggest concerns now do not come from factors related to internal politics, but from external conflicts, such as the possibility of a hard “Brexit” or the consequences of the trade war between States. States and China for strategic sectors such as telecommunications.Without forgetting, of course, that the conflict in Catalonia has not been resolved and that the composition of the new Government is unknown, a weighty variable, a situation of greater political stability that favors business development is expected.This has improved the perception of both the economy and advertising.
Both are still negative, but are at the best values so far this year.The IPSE (Index of Perception of the Economic Situation) recovers almost 14 points and now stands at -18.6.The IPMP (Advertising Market Perception Index) also recovers some of the losses of recent months. It now stands at -29.5, fifteen points better than two months ago.It is too early to know if it is a change in trend or is it just a conjuncture movement.The OTT phenomenon reaches great notoriety, with peaks like the one reached this last week around the end of Game of Thrones. Its influence on the audience of Generalist Television (especially among young people) and its ability to generate GRPs, the merchandise sold in the television business, is undoubted, but surely somewhat less than that which would be deduced from the volume of conversations generated by some series of OTTs.
When the panelists are asked about the evolution of investment in Television, they foresee a fall of 1.0% for General Television, which in a small part would be offset by growth of 4.1% (on a much lower basis) investment in Payment Channels. But if we ask them directly about the influence that OTT audience growth will have on investment in Television, we obtain a drop of 4.3%. In any event, both figures have slightly worsened in the last two months.The fall in investment in Television and the growth in the Internet will almost certainly make the Internet become the leading medium by investment by 2020.