Advertising investment in Conventional Media will grow this year by 2.0% if the forecasts of the Zenthinela panel, made up of executives of advertising companies, are met.The forecast is 1.4 points worse than the one we obtained in June. After the summer, expectations have deteriorated. The uncertainty generated by the conflict in Catalonia and the complex stability of the current government may be among the causes of this change in perspective.For Non-Conventional Media (NCM), expectations remain at a growth of 1.1%. If both forecasts were met, total investment in media would reach 12,471 million euros this year, 1.5% more than in 2017.Conventional Media would represent, if these provisions are met, 43.81% of the total investment in media.For 2019, the panelists expect a growth of 1.9%, basically supported by the growth of digital media.If we move away from Conventional Media, it is striking that the marketing item for which the greatest growth is expected in 2019 is Promotions and offers based on price, which tends to grow especially in the negative phases of the economic cycle.With the growing digitization and the increase in the communication power of people, the weight of commercial communication actions that escape the control of market data sources is increasing. The panelists are of the opinion that at least 5.8% of their investments cannot be tracked and controlled by those sources.After a very uneven start to the year, investment experienced a certain rebound at the end of the first semester, driven in part by the celebration of the Soccer World Cup. The summer, and especially the first few months after, have clearly lowered expectations. A certain recovery movement is still expected in the last months of the year, with the Black Friday and Christmas campaigns.Although 61% of the panelists believe that the change of government is not influencing the evolution of advertising investment, among those who do believe in this influence, the vast majority think that it does so in a negative way This trend has been accentuated something in the last four months: if we take it to indices ranging from -100 to +100 we now obtain -16.1 compared to -15 in June, when the change of government had just taken place.The conflict that Catalonia has been experiencing for some time could also be influencing the evolution of investment. In this case we use a “concern index” for the issue, which ranges from 0 to 100. In June it had decreased slightly and stood at 49.4.
As there is no progress towards the resolution of the conflict, concern increases and the Mexico WhatsApp Number List index now stands at 58.0.After the summer, perceptions have seriously deteriorated, both about the economic situation and about the advertising market. Both indices suffer sharp falls and are already at negative values.The IPSE (Index of Perception of the Economic Situation) falls with great force and falls 66.7 points, two thirds of the scale we use, and now remains at -10.0. It is the lowest value since June 2013, when a possible way out of the crisis was already announced The IPMP (Advertising Market Perception Index) also falls sharply. Although the decline is somewhat less in this case, because it had already fallen in June, the final result is worse: the index remains at -17 after falling 47 points. We thus find the worst value since October 2013.
The highest growth rates are expected for Digital Media: Mobile, Internet, Television Payment Channels and Digital Outdoor Advertising.With growth, but lower than the market average, are Radio, Exterior, Cinema and General Television.Again, as has been the case in recent years, the forecasts for the Print Media are negative.The biggest difference compared to four months ago occurs in the forecast with respect to General Television, which falls three points. On the contrary, the greatest positive variation refers to Supplements, which, despite maintaining the worst forecast, improved 1.6 points.Of the investment captured by Video on Line the greatest weight, 47% corresponds to Video In Stream (pre, middle and post roll); 35% goes to In banner Video and 18% to Outstream Video (inText, inImage, InRead etc…).
The arrival of new voice assistants in Spain and the holding of podcast sessions have brought Audio on Line back to the fore. Investment in Audio on Line is now reaching a greater weight. In the opinion of the panelists, it would now represent 5.7% of the investment in digital advertising (six tenths more than what was estimated in June). It is expected that in the coming months it will evolve at the same rate as online advertising.Programmatic Advertising continues to grow but already at a somewhat slower rate than in previous years. At the moment, it is estimated that it represents 21.6% of the investment in digital advertising. Most of the advertising that uses this form of trading is directed to mobile devices.Investment in “branded content” (content generated by or for brand