Advertising investment in Conventional Media will grow this year by 2.2% if the forecasts of the Zenthinela panel, made up of executives of advertising companies, are met. This forecast improves by two tenths the one made two months ago.Forecasts for 2019 are even better, when investment growth could stand at 2.9%, one point more than expected two months ago.For Non-Conventional Media (NCM) a growth forecast of 1.1% is maintained. In the event that both forecasts are met, total investment in media will amount to 12,484 million euros, representing a growth of 1.6%.Conventional Media would now represent 43.85% of the total investment in media. They are gradually recovering the relative weight they lost during the hardest years of the crisis.In recent years, the weight of advertising in the economy as a whole has been decreasing, as investment in advertising has grown less than GDP. This time it is very likely that growth will also stay below inflation.In Conventional Media, the highest growth is expected for advertising on Social Networks, while in MNC the item with the highest expectations of increase is that of Promotions and Offers based on Price.The estimate of the percentage of investment that is beyond the control of data sources is increasing. Based on the opinions of the panelists, it can be estimated that at least 8.8% of their investments are directed to types of communication actions that are not controlled by the usual market sources (Infoadex, Arce Media ,?).Everything seems to indicate that the end of the year has been somewhat better than the previous months, which has helped to improve expectations for the whole of the year.47% of the panelists believe that the action of the new Government is negatively influencing advertising investment.
This opinion has been worsening as more months have passed since his inauguration. If we index the Israel WhatsApp Number List opinions of the panelists (on a scale from -100 to +100) we now obtain an index -20.3, slightly more than five points worse than the value (-16.1) we obtained in October.In the opinion of the Zenthinela panelists, the conflict in recent years in Catalonia may also be having a negative influence on advertising investment. In this case the situation could have improved somewhat in the last two months. Using a “worry” index, which in this case ranges from 0 to 100, we now obtain a value of 51.5, compared to 58.0 in October.Perception indices, which fell sharply after the summer, becoming negative in both cases, are now recovering a small part of that drop, enough to become positive again.
The IPSE (Index of Perception of the Economic Situation) now recovers almost sixteen points (between June and October it had lost 66.7) and stands at +5.9.The IPMP (Advertising Market Perception Index) recovers 23 of the 47 points it had lost after the summer and stands at +6.0, almost the same value as the IPSE.It is expected that this year the greatest growth will take place in Social Networks, Mobile Phones, Online Video and the Internet in general. For Print Media, drops are expected, although somewhat lower than those forecast two months ago. In MNC, the highest increase is expected for Mobile Marketing (messaging, advergaming, apps,?) And for Sports Sponsorship Acts. The biggest drops will correspond to off-line Mailboxing / Brochures and Advertising Gifts.
For next year it is also expected that the greatest growths in MC will occur for Mobiles and Internet; drops are expected again for Print Media.Of the investment captured by Online Video, the highest proportion corresponds to Video in Stream (Pre, middle or post roll); it is estimated that it represents 54% of the total. 27% goes to Video in Banner and 19% to Video out Stream (inText, inImage, in Read ,?).Audio on Line, which is gaining prominence with the arrival of voice assistants and the rise of the podcast now accounts for 5.4% of investment in online advertising, in the opinion of the panelists. In the coming months it will grow at the same rate as online advertising, thereby maintaining that proportion.
Pro grammatically negotiated digital investment would currently represent 22% of total digital investment. 85% of the panelists believe that this percentage will grow in the coming months. The Smartphone is gaining more and more weight in programmatic advertising; panelists believe that it already represents 56% of all investment managed in this way. The PC would represent 35% and Connected Television 9%.Virtually all panelists believe that the proliferation of ad blockers will change the way digital advertising is negotiated.91% of the panelists believe that investment in content generated by, or for, brands (“branded content”) will grow in the coming months. Even 23% believe that it will grow a lot. Of all the investment dedicated to “branded content”, 42% should be dedicated to the creation of the content and the remaining 58% to its Distribution / promotion.In recent months