Zenith Vigía panelists, directors of media and media groups, remain hopeful that advertising investment will grow by 1.1% this year. For this, it would have to grow a little more than 3% in the second semester to compensate for the fall that was registered in the first. After almost half of this period, it does not seem that the favorable circumstances for this change in trend are taking place.For next year a growth of 1.4% is expected. In recent years, the campaigns of the last part of the year (Christmas, Blackfriday, Cyber ​​Monday ,?) have served to compensate for the weak start of the year. The forecast has been falling in recent months. 2.0% was expected in May and 1.6% in July.The situation of political instability and international economic problems are having a negative influence on a sector that has traditionally been very sensitive to the effects of the conjuncture.The panelists answered the questionnaire in the central period of September when it was already sensed that there would be no agreement for the formation of a Government and that we would go to new elections.If these forecasts are met and other economic indicators are maintained, there would be real growth in investment (being above the CPI) but advertising would lose weight again in the Spanish economy, falling below the increase in GDP.Possible investment growth would be based on digital media. Television (which loses audience and investment due to the growth of OTT content platforms) has joined the print media as one of those that will suffer investment drops.

The last few months of political Ivory Coast Phone Number List disagreements, the worsening of the conflict in Catalonia, the “Brexit” crisis, or trade problems between the United States and China have worsened perceptions, both regarding advertising and the economy in general.The IPSE (Index of Perception of the Economic Situation) now falls almost 37 points and stands at -55.4. It is the worst value since May 2013 when the last blows of the hardest part of the crisis were still being experienced.The IPMP (Advertising Market Perception Index) stands at -64.3, after falling almost 24 points since July, but almost 35 since May. Also in this case it is the worst value since May 2013.In the latter part of the first semester, when it was thought that a government could be formed and greater stability was expected, these indices improved.

The panelists believe that the growth of OTTs, increasingly notorious, is causing the fall of advertising investment in Television. Although most do not include advertising, they do compete for audiovisual consumption time. That drop is estimated at 5.3%.The highest growth is still expected for investment in Mobile Phones (+ 9.8%). Significant growth is also expected for investment in the Internet, in general (+ 7.9%), which will be even higher if we look at investment in Online Video (+ 9.0%) or in Social Networks (+7 , 9%).Growth is also expected for investment in PED (Digital Outdoor Advertising: + 6.3%); Television Payment Channels (+ 3.5%); Cinema (+ 3.2%); Radio (+ 2.1%) and Exterior as a whole (+ 2.1%).

On the other hand, falls are expected for Generalist Television (-2.5%); Daily (-6.6%); Magazines (-8.0%) and Supplements (-9.0%).The Telecommunications, Telephony and Internet sector is the one with the most possibilities of increasing its advertising investment. Although the arrival of 5G technology is being weaker than expected, we are witnessing growing competition between the various content platforms, which is increasing this investment.The Automobile sector is immersed in a sea of ​​doubts, between the changes of engines and the rise of new mobility alternatives, especially in cities.Forecasts by mediaThe variations in the forecasts with respect to those we obtained in March are slight. In no case do they exceed the point.

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