Advertising investment in media could grow this year by 2.2% if the forecasts of the Zenith Vigía panel, made up of media executives, are met. The forecasts have been decreasing as the year progressed (now they are three tenths worse than in July ) but even so, they are still better than the results registered in the first semester; To reach the expected figure, a considerable improvement would have to be made in the last quarter, something that in the current circumstances seems unlikely.If this growth of 2.2% were to take place, we would be facing a figure equal to the inflation registered in August and a few tenths below the growth forecast for GDP. The forecasts are somewhat better for 2019 when investment could grow by 2, 5%. After the rebound in investments that was seen at the end of the first semester, we have experienced a very flat summer and expectations for the next few months are not very optimistic.Digital Media are the ones that sustain this possible growth: investment in Mobile phones could grow by 10.5% in 2018 and 10.4% in 2019; Social Networks would grow 11.1% in 2018 and 10.7% in 2019; Online Video would grow by 9.8% in 2018 and the same amount in 2019. Part of these growths overlap: much of the investment in Social Networks or Online Video corresponds to advertising seen on mobile devices.The panelists seem to have detected a clear cooling of the sector and the economy in general. This is reflected in the indicators obtained from the panel. The IPSE (Index of Perception of the Economic Situation) has fallen almost 55 points since July and now stands at 1.7, a still positive value but already very close to the red line.Worse is the case of the IPMP (Advertising Market Perception Index): it falls more than 36 points and reaches a decidedly negative position: -21.7.

There are already many more Philippines WhatsApp Number List panelists who believe that advertising is going through a bad time than those who see it positively.Until well into the recent crisis, the advertising market data functioned as a barometer or precursor of the future performance of the economy. The current data (an IPMP much worse than the IPSE) would have been interpreted as a bad omen for the economy. Fortunately, the changes that digitization has brought to the advertising sector mean that this correlation is no longer so clear.Another indicator that has also cooled down is the ratio between sectors for which growth is expected and for which decrease is expected: it is now 1.38 compared to 1.71 in July. It stays above one, which is a good sign, but it goes down.

The Automobile sector continues to be the one with the highest expectations for investment growth. A change in the legislation has meant that in August there was a 35% growth in sales compared to the same month of the previous year. But now it is feared that we will have a few last months of the year with very small growths. Sales of electric or hybrid vehicles will grow but the starting figures are too small to compensate for the drop in diesel sales. Sectors such as Telephony, Internet Telecommunications or Banking and Finance raise doubts among the panelists, who show widely divided opinions.Growth is also expected for the Food and Beverages sector and a decline for the Culture, Education and Media sector and for the Public and private Services sector.

Forecasts by media There have only been slight variations with respect to the forecasts we obtained in July. Only in the case of Video on Line is there a setback of more than one point. Forecasts for Television worsen both in the case of the Generalist and the Thematic. The biggest improvements are in Mobile, Radio and Digital Exterior.Investment forecasts by means can be seen in the following table. They are compared with the forecasts made in July. The third column represents the direction of the variation. A + sign indicates that the forecast is now better; a sign – that the forecast is now worse; greater number of signs should be interpreted as greater variation:

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