Zenith Vigía panelists, media managers or media groups, have somewhat improved their expectations regarding ad spend. Now it is expected to grow by 2.1%, three tenths above the forecast made in January.This figure is not far from the expected growth for GDP, so advertising will maintain its weight in the Spanish economy.Growth is increasingly based on digital media. On the other hand, both print media and general television will suffer investment reductions if the panel’s forecasts are met.The uncertainty produced by the successive electoral processes, the conflict in Catalonia and international events, such as a complicated Brexit or the trade war between the two major economic powers, has led to a deterioration in perception, both regarding the economy and the more specific about the advertising market.The IPSE (Index of Perception of the Economic Situation) falls almost ten points and stands at -32.3. It’s already closer to “bad” than “fair.” It is the worst value since July 2013, when it was growing in an attempt to get out of the depths of the crisis.The IPMP (Advertising Market Perception Index) also falls, in this case just over 14 points and remains at -44.6, already very close to the “bad” value. Here too we are facing the worst value since July 2013.
The linear television audience has been falling since 2012 as a consequence of the decrease Canada WhatsApp Number List in unemployment and the increasing time dedicated to the consumption of other audiovisual content, especially those that arrive through OTT platforms. Consumption is now similar to what was recorded in 2007, the all-time high until then, when no one was talking about the “death of television.” But less consumption implies less generation of GRPs, the merchandise that televisions sell. Only a small part of this drop can be offset by price increases, so it is not surprising that the medium registers falls in investment.When the panelists are asked about investment in television within a list of media, a drop of 0.7% is expected. But when asked about the effect of the increase in the audience of OTTs, that drop reaches 3.8%.In any case, linear television will once again be the medium that receives the most investment this year. It continues to be the medium that facilitates the construction in less time of campaign coverage and the achievement of notoriety.
The highest growth (+ 10.2%) is expected for investment in Social Networks; very close (+ 10.1%) is the investment in mobile phones; Online Video will grow 9.8%. These are the three most dynamic modalities of digital advertising (often coincident: a video, on a social network that is viewed through a mobile phone). Investment in the Internet in general, which includes all types of modalities, will grow by 8.8%.Growth above the market average is also expected for Digital Outdoor Advertising (+ 6.7%); Television Payment Channels (+ 5.1% and Cinema (+ 2.4%).Radio (+ 2.0%) and Digital Advertising as a whole (+ 1.8%) will grow less than the market average.And they will suffer falls, in addition to the aforementioned Generalist Television, Newspapers (-6.1%), Magazines (-6.1%) and Supplements (-8.3%).With the problems that the Automotive sector is going through, which has been linked to six months of falls in sales, the media are not clear about the sectors that pull the investment.
A certain atony is sensed.Forecasts by media There are no major variations compared to the forecasts we obtained two months ago. The greatest improvement (+1.3 points) occurred for Digital Outdoor Advertising; the greatest worsening (´1 point) corresponds to Mobiles, which, even so, will continue to experience one of the highest growth rates.The rest of the variations in the forecast do not exceed half a point.Investment forecasts by means can be seen in the following table. They are compared with the forecasts made in January. The third column represents the direction of the variation. A + sign indicates that the forecast is now better than two months ago; a sign – that the forecast is now worse; greater number of signs should be interpreted as greater amplitude of the variation: