As the year has passed, the forecasts for advertising investment have deteriorated. The Zenthinela panelists (executives of advertising companies) maintain the hope that there will be an increase in investment of 0.9%, lower than the GDP growth and in the order of what is expected for the CPI. This figure is seven tenths worse than that obtained in the previous wave of the study, carried out in June.However, for this result to occur we would have to experience a last quarter of strong investment growth, since in the first nine months of the year there have been falls of the order of 3%.In recent years, the last quarter has been the best, concentrating important campaigns aimed at stimulating Christmas sales, as well as those that occur around digital events such as “black Friday” or “cyber Monday”, but the beginning of November with a new electoral call is not going to favor things.This issue, the uncertainty caused by political issues such as the persistence of a government in office or the growing conflict that has been experienced in Catalonia, are among the causes of a difficult year for the advertising market.The structural transformation of advertising itself, increasingly digital with technological conditions and associated costs, adds other difficulties.Perception indices, which improved a lot in June, when the constitution of a government that would produce stability and reduce uncertainty seemed possible, are now falling sharply.The IPSE (Index of Perception of the Economic Situation) falls more than 67 points (a third of the scale’s route) and stands at -64.5. It is the worst value since April 2013, when the harsh crisis that began at the end of 2007 seemed to begin to emerge.The IPMP (Advertising Market Perception Index) also falls sharply, in this case 61 points and stands at -61, the worst value since June 2013.The forecasts have been made throughout the month of October, when it was already known that we would go to a new general election.
Uncertainty grew throughout Finland Phone Number List the summer, as the inability of politicians to reach agreements that would allow the constitution of a stable government was proven.Added reasons for uncertainty have also come from abroad, with a “Brexit” that does not close and the growing difficulties to international trade that the Trump administration is introducing.Unconventional Media will grow, if these forecasts are met, by 1.1%. With this, the set of all investments in media would grow by 1.0% to stand at 12,868 million euros.The MNC would account for a total of 57.5% of the investment in media. The greatest growth of MNCs over CMs usually occurs only in years of economic difficulties, in which caring for brand equity takes a back seat.
If these forecasts are met, the sixth consecutive year of growth in investment in MC will be completed, but advertising will lose weight in the Spanish economy by growing less than GDP.Advertising investment has been undergoing a strong change in its composition for years, increasingly digital . If the decline in Conventional Television is accentuated and the growth rate of investment in Digital Media is maintained, these could be above Television this year or, at most, in 2020.Mobile advertising (+ 8.6%); the one using Video on Line (+ 8.1%) and the one targeting Social Networks (+ 7.0%), three aspects that in many cases overlap, constitute the phenomena with the highest expected growth. This would lead the Internet as a whole to growth of 7.3%.
Growth is also expected for Digital Outdoor Advertising (PED: + 4.8%); Television Payment Channels (+ 4.7%); Radius (+ 1.8%); Exterior as a whole (+ 1.5%) and Cinema (+ 1.1%).On the other hand, falls are expected for Generalist Television (-2.8%); Daily (-5.1%); Magazines (-6.1%) and Supplements (-6.7%).Investment in MNC continues to be highly concentrated in the three largest chapters, which represent 71.4% of the total: Personalized mailing which, despite the decline, continues to be the investment leader and represents 25.6% of total investment in MNC; POS Merchandising, Signaling and Labels, which would maintain the figures from last year and would represent 24.1% and Telephone Marketing, which, growing by 0.5%, would now represent 21.8%.
The greatest variations in MNC will be: the greatest increases will occur in Mobile Marketing (+ 8.6%); Branded content (+ 6.3%) and Influence’s (+ 5.1%). On the other hand, the greatest decreases correspond to Mailboxes / Brochures (-8.5%); Yearbooks, Guide and Directories (-5.0%) and Catalogs (-3.7%).It is becoming more and more difficult for data sources to detect and measure well all the communication modalities that have appeared or grown with the arrival of digitization. In the opinion of the panelists, the investment that data sources are left out of their measurements is around 11.1% of the total.A large part of streaming televisions or OTTs do not include advertising, but they do affect conventional television