Zenith Vigía panelists once again lower their expectations for ad spend growth. They remain positive, at 1.9%, but are down three tenths compared to two months ago.The advertising market maintains a great weight of Generalist Television, which is declining slightly, while digital media, highly concentrated in a small number of non-transparent companies, rapidly gain influence. In addition, new communication options for brands are growing, of which they are not. investment reaches the media.Forecasts have been dwindling with each new wave of the study. The year could close with a figure slightly worse than expected now but which would remain positive with a high probability.Investment in media this year will be below GDP growth, with the consequent loss of weight of advertising in the economy, and there would be no real growth, but only due to inflation, as it is also below the CPI.On the other hand, the forecasts for 2019 improve, in which investment could grow by 2.9%, in this case above the GDP growth forecasts. And this despite the fact that it is an odd year, without major sporting events and that several electoral calls can be expected, which in Spain do not usually favor the growth of advertising investment.The last quarter, very marked by the Christmas campaigns, and now also by the “balck friday”, the “cyber monday” and even by the Chinese singles day, is not having the force that could be expected, although they are arriving New and powerful advertisers in sectors such as Internet sales or Video platforms.The highest growth rates are expected for Digital Media, while declines are still expected for Print Media and, now also, for General Television. Mobile is the main protagonist. Investment in mobile phones could grow by 11.3%. The Internet as a whole would grow by 9.1%, with somewhat higher growth in investment going to Social Networks (+ 11.1%) or Video on Line (+ 10.6%) and maintenance or slight decline in formats ” display “.Part of these growths overlap: much of the investment in Social Networks or Online Video corresponds to advertising that is seen on mobile devices.
A complex year economically, and especially politically, like the one we have experienced has Kuwait WhatsApp Number List taken the panelists to lower their perceptions of the economy and the advertising market. This is reflected in the perception indexes that this month are already negative in both cases. The IPSE (Index of Perception of the Economic Situation) moderates the rate of decline that it had experienced in the previous wave, but even so it falls again 12 points and is now in the negative part of the scale: -10.3.The IPMP (Advertising Market Perception Index), which was already negative in September, falls again, now slightly, and remains at -25.4, already closer to “bad” than “regular”.Until well into the recent crisis, the advertising market data functioned as a barometer or precursor of the future performance of the economy.
The current data (an IPMP worse than the IPSE) would have been interpreted as a bad omen for the economy. Fortunately, the changes that digitization has brought to the advertising sector mean that this correlation is no longer so clear.Car sales have fallen in the past two months following a sharp rise in August due to the entry into force of new European emissions legislation. For this reason, sales fell in September and October, which does not prevent the Automotive sector from continuing to raise the highest expectations for investment growth among the panelists. It is necessary to give way to the “self-registered” vehicles in August and begin to publicize the new less polluting models and engines.
For the Telephony, Telecommunications and Internet sector, opinions are divided on whether investment will grow or decrease, at a time when the fight between the different companies is arising in the field of content offer, waiting for a 5G which seems to be delayed.Now growth is expected for Banking and Finance, a sector that is going through a difficult time in the Stock Market due to adverse court decisions, while investment declines are expected in the Culture, Education and Media and Public and private Services sectors.Forecasts by media Although the forecasts have worsened as a whole, those referred to the different media have not changed to a great extent.
The most striking fact is the change of sign in the forecast for Generalist Television, which also registers the largest drop. In previous waves, the forecast remained positive despite the slight falls in investment that had already been registered in the leading medium.The greatest improvement corresponds to the Cinema which, after last year’s downturn, is once again experiencing a good year with powerful premieres and which will recover the symbolic figure of the one hundred million theater goers.Investment forecasts by means can be seen in the following table. They are compared with the forecasts made in September. The third column r