The year 2019 is not being a good one for advertising investment. With a little more than a month left for its closing, the panelists of Zenith Vigía, directors of media and media groups, still hope that there will not be a decrease, although this would require a strong growth in this last quarter , of the order of 7%, something that does not seem to be happening.In the most recent years, the last quarter has been the strongest of the year, due to seasonal campaigns to support commercial events such as Black Friday, Cyber Monday or purchases for Christmas and Kings.If Zenith Vigía’s forecasts are met, we will live two years practically flat: for 2019 a growth of 0.4% is expected and for 2020 of 0.7%.We have lived through a complex year, with a high degree of uncertainty, both at the national level (repeated electoral calls, long conversations without government agreements, prolongation of budgets, conflict in Catalonia,?) And internationally (a “Brexit” that never closes, establishment of tariffs by the United States ,?). Uncertainty and instability are not good, generally for business and especially for the advertising business.The advertising sector itself is undergoing a strong transformation towards digitization and more personalized messages. At the moment the increase in investment in digital media does not compensate for the decline in analog.The panelists answered the questionnaire throughout the month of November. In some cases they did so before election day and in others after the agreement between the PSOE and United We Can to form a government was known, and even after the ruling in the case of the EREs was known.The growth forecast for investment this year is very similar to inflation (the CPI for October stood at 0.3%), so it could be said that there will be no real growth. Furthermore, by falling below GDP growth, advertising would lose weight in the Spanish economy.The highest growth in investment is directed to Digital Media (Internet, Mobile, Digital Exterior), while both General Television and Print Media will suffer significant drops.If the trend continues, investment in Digital Media will exceed that captured by General Television in 2020.It remains to be seen how the recent ruling by the CNMC on the commercial policies of the so-called “duopoly” affects investment in Television.
Meanwhile the other “duopoly” in fact, the digital one, grows without problems and Cayman Islands Phone Numbers List without paying, practically, taxes in Spain.After the sharp fall that they experienced in September, the perception indices now register small movements that, moreover, do not occur in the same direction: while the IPSE (Index of Perception of the Economic Situation) improves 2.1 points and stands at -53.3, the IPMP (Advertising Market Perception Index) worsened slightly, falling 2.4 points and now stands at -66.7.In both cases, they are values similar to those recorded in 2013, when the harshest phase of the crisis began to emerge.The growth in the audience of OTTs that, although in general they do not compete for advertising investment, they do compete for consumption time, may be affecting investment in Generalist Television.
The panelists believe that its effect is translated into a decrease of 3.8%.Video on Line is the modality for which the highest investment growth is expected: 9.4%. Significant growth is also expected for the rest of the digital options: investment in Mobiles will grow by 8.8%; Social Networks 8.7% and the Internet as a whole 8.5%. For its part, Digital Outdoor Advertising (PED) will grow by 5.7%.In smaller figures, but also with growth, the Cinema (+ 3.5%); Exterior in general (2.8%); Television Payment Channels (+ 2.5%) and Radio (2.1%).On the other hand, important decreases are expected for General Television (-4.8%); Daily (-7.1%); Magazines (-8.8%) and Supplements (-8.9%).The forecasts for General Television, the engine of the advertising market until very recently, have deteriorated as the year progressed.
The panelists’ hopes for a possible growth in investment are based, above all, on the Telephony, Telecommunications and Internet sector: the growing competition between content platforms, which in many cases also serve as a sales pitch for companies Telephony, help to await the rise of 5G technology, which is delayed somewhat more than expected.There are doubts about the Banking and Finance sector: while a significant number of panelists believe that it will increase their investment, a somewhat smaller number believe that it will reduce it.On the other hand, hopes seem to reappear regarding the automobile sector, which should support the launching of new models with less polluting engines.